What is a turning point in history? These can be hard to spot as we live through them. However, if, as I fear, we will need to pinpoint just when liberal democracy ended in the United States, 8 November, the date of the US midterm elections, may well be a good candidate.
Why my gloom? This an election in a highly polarized country were many people on both sides fear the victory of the other side as an existential threat. Many Republicans view the Democrats as Godless pedophiles, who, backed by Jewish money, seek to replace white people with dark-skinned minorities. Many democrats fear that if these forces take control, the democratic process and the rule of law will end and the country will be turned back to the early 20th century with severe economic, social and political inequality.
The midterm elections will not resolve these fears.
First, what are the «midterm» elections? Congressional elections are held every two years; midterms are Congressional elections that are held between Presidential elections, which are held every four years. But the name hides the important fact that many other elections are held at the same time at the state and local level. This year, who wins these is more important than ever.
The election process itself is a big problem. There are now many reports about voting irregularities. Some are just routine mistakes that look sinister in the current political climate. But, regardless, wide-spread stories about illegal voting, voter intimidation, disenfranchisement and crooked machines are destroying the legitimacy of the electoral process.
Once the elections are over and winners are designated, we will need to take a serious look at these winners.
Many «election deniers» are standing for office this year. An «election denier» is a person who believes that Trump won the 2020 election only to have it stolen (by democrats) from him. Democrats call this «the big lie». There is no evidence that the 2020 elections were rigged, only dark suspicions that lead down deep, deep rabbit holes. This is a belief that defies rationality.
The election of election deniers to key state positions will be highly dangerous. The states run elections, including federal elections, with the help of local officials. In 2020, these offices were held by people who were elected before the big lie took root. When the White House pressured them to change the results of the presidential elections, they stuck to state law and reported the results. Senior figures stood by their election officials. If election deniers are elected to even a few of these positions, that support for democracy will fail.
A few examples of the danger have to suffice. State-level secretaries of state generally run the elections. In 2022, these officials are up for election in 27 states. The Washington Post counts 8 such races where deniers are favored to win or stand a fair chance of winning.
Thirty-six governors are on the ballot. In some states the governor appoints the secretary of state; in many cases the governor certifies voting results for federal elections. The Washington Post identifies 8 races where election deniers are expected to win and 6 where they could reasonably win.
Where these candidates win, future elections will be at the mercy of ideologically-driven officials who may refuse to accept results they don’t like. This has happened on a minor scale already in Otero County New Mexico, where the Republican County commission refused to accept the Democratic victory in a primary election earlier this year. There was no evidence of fraud. They just felt the outcome was wrong.
State legislatures draw voting districts and pass the voting laws. Hundreds of these seats are up for election this November (88 state chambers in 46 states). NBC news reports that 58% of Republican candidates in 5 key “battleground” states (Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan and Minnesota) are election deniers. Democrats already complain that Republican-controlled legislatures deliberately rig the system against Democrats. With election deniers in office, this problem will grow.
State legislatures also matter because of the doctrine of the «independent state legislature». According to this Republican interpretation of the constitution, state legislatures have absolute power over federal elections in their state. Governors and state courts would be blocked from interfering. In the past, the US Supreme Court rejected this doctrine. However, the current US Supreme Court, which has been striking down many long-standing rulings, will soon rule again on this issue. If it upholds this doctrine, Republicans dominated state legislatures could simply abandon federal elections completely and chose presidential electors themselves.
Finally, we arrive back at Congress. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives are up for election this year. According to the Washington Post, 147 election deniers are expected to win election and in 25 cases, they could win. In the Senate, where 35 of 100 seats are up for election, 5 election deniers are favored to win; a further 7 could win. These officials have little to do with elections, but together they count the electoral college votes and declare the winner of the presidential election. The law about contesting electoral votes has never been fully tested, even in 2020. Then, Democratic control of the House put limits on Republican efforts. With Republican control, that brake will be gone. There will be little standing in the way of Republicans simply refusing to accept results they don’t like.
There is so much more to say. If the Democrats lose control over either the US House of Representatives or the Senate (very likely), Biden will be unable to get his political agenda through Congress. However, the Republican agenda will also be blocked by presidential veto. Should Democrats lose control of the House of Representatives, the House will impeach Joe Biden, not once but several times – so that Trump will not be the only twice-impeached president. Democrats will block his removal, but all meaningful work in the Congress will stop.
This gridlock will frustrate and polarize citizens still further. And then there are all those guns. . .
Broadcasting from London during the Nazi blitz, the American journalist Edward R. Morrow signed off with the phrase, “good night and good luck”. Those were dark days, and the victory of democratic rule uncertain. As this piece is being written, that is an apt description of the US.